Why Aren't You Sleeping? You Have a Race to Run in 10 Hours!

We know we can't control the weather, but sometimes it's almost as though we think by studying it we are having an influence. We aren't. Of course. Whatever is going to be will be. And that's a beautiful thing, that truth; it's timeless, as much the case now as it was a thousand years ago. So no matter what the meteorologists, in consultation with their computer models, say, tomorrow is going to unfold just as it damn well pleases. And all of us at the starting line at 7 a.m. in Folsom, we'll deal with it, like we always do.

All right, all right, enough philosophizing.

The final forecast isn't a lot different than what we've been thinking for a few days now.

• Right around freezing at the start.
• Some light southeast winds in the first hour, under a rising sun that will begin to give way to increasing clouds.
• Winds picking up as the morning wears on, to 5-10 mph, and turning more directly from the south. Temps will rise slowly; if you're an under-three-hour marathoner, you may do this entire race in temperatures under 40 degrees.
• Closer to noon, the temperature could climb to near 50, but the south winds will be blowing at 10-15 mph, with some gusts even stronger.

Chilly Start & Winds Picking Up

National Weather Service Folsom forecast:
Tonight: Widespread frost after 2am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 31. Light north northwest wind.
And for Sacramento:
Sunday: Widespread frost before 9am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a high near 50. South wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

AccuWeather Hourly

We're close enough to the race for the hourly forecast to begin to have real value. Here's what AccuWeather sees for Sunday:

Folsom, 7 a.m.: 34F, partly sunny, ESE winds @ 6 mph
Fair Oaks, 8 a.m.: 35F, sunny, SSE winds @ 5 mph
Sacramento, 9 a.m.: 38F, sunny, SSE winds @ 6 mph
Sacramento, 10 a.m.: 40F, sunny, SSE winds @ 7 mph
Sacramento, 11 a.m.: 45F, partly sunny, S winds, 8 mph
Sacramento, noon: 46F, partly sunny, WNW winds, 8 mph

Shifting Winds

My sense is that the winds won't really pick up until later in the day. Still, this update to the National Weather Service's Sunday forecast for Sacramento, with the possibility of southwest winds up to 18 mph (we'll be running in that direction), is a little scary.

"Sunday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 49. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph."

Mapping the CIM Forecast

My buddy Dan chips in on the weather obsession with a map that brings to life the CIM forecast. Click to view the larger map, then click on the icons on the map for details. Thanks, Dan!


View California International Marathon in a larger map

Getting Geeky

We're pretty set on the forecast for Sunday—see previous post—with just the wind the only possible wild card. But if you're interested in the underlying atmospheric dynamics, the new Forecast Area Discussion out of the Sacramento National Weather Service is a good one:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1005 AM PST FRI DEC 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NOAM AND THE ERN PAC WILL BRING A CHANGE IN NORCAL WX THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW S OF HUDSON BAY /HUDSBA/ INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. EWD TO THE ERN SEABOARD...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC HAS ALLOWED SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT SPILLED OVER THE ERN PAC RIDGE TO FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER B.C. THIS SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO AIR FROM THE YUKON/B.C. PROVINCES WHERE IT WAS 1 BELOW TO 14 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE YUKON THIS MORNING...

THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NV ON SAT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN CA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NELY OR UPSLOPE OVER THE E SLOPES SIERNEV...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...NO SPILLOVER OF PCPN IS EXPECTED W OF THE SIERNEV CREST. THIS FRONT WILL GIVE NORCAL ITS FIRST COOLING TREND OF SOME 5 TO 6 DEG C AT 850 MBS AND AS MUCH AS 15 DAM THICKNESS COOLING OVER OUR NERN ZONES.

Morning Roundup

The consensus sees a chilly, dry Sunday morning in Folsom with the temperature around freezing, and partly sunny skies in Sacramento later, with mid-morning temperatures edging into the low 40s. Overnight winds from the north northwest will switch to more southerly during the morning; they'll be fairly light, but could be in our face.

National Weather Service
Folsom Saturday overnight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. North northwest wind between 3 and 7 mph.
Sacramento Sunday: Partly sunny, with an afternoon high near 52. South wind around 8 mph.

Wunderground
Folsom Sunday 7 a.m.: Partly cloudy, 32, SE winds @ 2 mph
Sacramento Sunday 10 a.m.:Partly cloudy, 40, SSW winds @ 6 mph

AccuWeather
Folsom Sunday 7 a.m.: Sunny, 34, S winds @ 3 mph
Sacramento Sunday 10 a.m.: Partly sunny, 43, SSE winds @ 9 mph

Weather.com
Folsom Saturday overnight: Partly cloudy, 32, W winds @ 7 mph
Sacramento Sunday: Mostly sunny, with an afternoon high near 56.