Why Aren't You Sleeping? You Have a Race to Run in 10 Hours!

We know we can't control the weather, but sometimes it's almost as though we think by studying it we are having an influence. We aren't. Of course. Whatever is going to be will be. And that's a beautiful thing, that truth; it's timeless, as much the case now as it was a thousand years ago. So no matter what the meteorologists, in consultation with their computer models, say, tomorrow is going to unfold just as it damn well pleases. And all of us at the starting line at 7 a.m. in Folsom, we'll deal with it, like we always do.

All right, all right, enough philosophizing.

The final forecast isn't a lot different than what we've been thinking for a few days now.

• Right around freezing at the start.
• Some light southeast winds in the first hour, under a rising sun that will begin to give way to increasing clouds.
• Winds picking up as the morning wears on, to 5-10 mph, and turning more directly from the south. Temps will rise slowly; if you're an under-three-hour marathoner, you may do this entire race in temperatures under 40 degrees.
• Closer to noon, the temperature could climb to near 50, but the south winds will be blowing at 10-15 mph, with some gusts even stronger.

Chilly Start & Winds Picking Up

National Weather Service Folsom forecast:
Tonight: Widespread frost after 2am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 31. Light north northwest wind.
And for Sacramento:
Sunday: Widespread frost before 9am. Otherwise, increasing clouds, with a high near 50. South wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

AccuWeather Hourly

We're close enough to the race for the hourly forecast to begin to have real value. Here's what AccuWeather sees for Sunday:

Folsom, 7 a.m.: 34F, partly sunny, ESE winds @ 6 mph
Fair Oaks, 8 a.m.: 35F, sunny, SSE winds @ 5 mph
Sacramento, 9 a.m.: 38F, sunny, SSE winds @ 6 mph
Sacramento, 10 a.m.: 40F, sunny, SSE winds @ 7 mph
Sacramento, 11 a.m.: 45F, partly sunny, S winds, 8 mph
Sacramento, noon: 46F, partly sunny, WNW winds, 8 mph

Shifting Winds

My sense is that the winds won't really pick up until later in the day. Still, this update to the National Weather Service's Sunday forecast for Sacramento, with the possibility of southwest winds up to 18 mph (we'll be running in that direction), is a little scary.

"Sunday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 49. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming southwest. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph."

Mapping the CIM Forecast

My buddy Dan chips in on the weather obsession with a map that brings to life the CIM forecast. Click to view the larger map, then click on the icons on the map for details. Thanks, Dan!


View California International Marathon in a larger map

Getting Geeky

We're pretty set on the forecast for Sunday—see previous post—with just the wind the only possible wild card. But if you're interested in the underlying atmospheric dynamics, the new Forecast Area Discussion out of the Sacramento National Weather Service is a good one:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1005 AM PST FRI DEC 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NOAM AND THE ERN PAC WILL BRING A CHANGE IN NORCAL WX THIS WEEKEND. DEEP LOW S OF HUDSON BAY /HUDSBA/ INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. EWD TO THE ERN SEABOARD...AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC HAS ALLOWED SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT SPILLED OVER THE ERN PAC RIDGE TO FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER B.C. THIS SYSTEM HAS TAPPED INTO AIR FROM THE YUKON/B.C. PROVINCES WHERE IT WAS 1 BELOW TO 14 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE YUKON THIS MORNING...

THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NV ON SAT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NERN CA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NELY OR UPSLOPE OVER THE E SLOPES SIERNEV...BUT WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE...NO SPILLOVER OF PCPN IS EXPECTED W OF THE SIERNEV CREST. THIS FRONT WILL GIVE NORCAL ITS FIRST COOLING TREND OF SOME 5 TO 6 DEG C AT 850 MBS AND AS MUCH AS 15 DAM THICKNESS COOLING OVER OUR NERN ZONES.

Morning Roundup

The consensus sees a chilly, dry Sunday morning in Folsom with the temperature around freezing, and partly sunny skies in Sacramento later, with mid-morning temperatures edging into the low 40s. Overnight winds from the north northwest will switch to more southerly during the morning; they'll be fairly light, but could be in our face.

National Weather Service
Folsom Saturday overnight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. North northwest wind between 3 and 7 mph.
Sacramento Sunday: Partly sunny, with an afternoon high near 52. South wind around 8 mph.

Wunderground
Folsom Sunday 7 a.m.: Partly cloudy, 32, SE winds @ 2 mph
Sacramento Sunday 10 a.m.:Partly cloudy, 40, SSW winds @ 6 mph

AccuWeather
Folsom Sunday 7 a.m.: Sunny, 34, S winds @ 3 mph
Sacramento Sunday 10 a.m.: Partly sunny, 43, SSE winds @ 9 mph

Weather.com
Folsom Saturday overnight: Partly cloudy, 32, W winds @ 7 mph
Sacramento Sunday: Mostly sunny, with an afternoon high near 56.

National Weather Service Loses the Rain

For a few days the Sunday forecast called for "chance of rain." Then in the last 24 hours it was downgraded to "slight chance of rain." Now? No mention of rain whatsoever. That said, it'll be near freezing at the start and the first hour or two of the race will likely see temperatures remaining below 40F. Also, it looks like some chilly winds will be coming out of the north-northwest, sustained around 5 mph. About two-thirds of the course goes west, the other third south. So those winds might be a bit bothersome at times, but shouldn't be head-on, and might at times be at our backs. That's a trickier call right now than precipitation; we'll follow the forecasts closely over the next two days to see how the wind possibilities develop.

The current NWS forecast:
Early morning in Folsom: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. North northwest wind between 5 and 7 mph.
Sunday in Sacramento: Partly sunny, with a high near 52.

Wind: It Doesn't Take Much

But little Mouse, you are not alone,

In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes of mice and men
Go often askew,
And leave us nothing but grief and pain,
For promised joy!

—To a Mouse, Robert Burns

I was wishing I were a little mouse when I turned and began heading east on my run this morning. A little mouse: so close to the ground, such a low profile. And what aerodynamics with that pointy nose.

Instead, I was a big ol’ air-catching dude, and the 15-20 mph easterlies were making it way more difficult than it should have been for me to maintain my 7:15/mile pace. This got me thinking again about the wind conditions we might face Sunday morning at the California International Marathon. Now, I spoke with George in the Sacramento office of the National Weather Service this afternoon, and he was pretty certain wind won’t be a big deal Sunday morning. He figured that at worst we might see some winds from the south or west around 5 mph. But George is a normal person, not a runner, and he might not realize that when it comes to headwinds, it doesn’t take much to derail precarious and ambitious personal-best designs. From running writer and coach Bob Glover over at the New York Road Runners site:

The slower the runner, the more time lost due to a headwind. According to Dr. Jack Daniels, a three-hour marathon runner loses 11 seconds per mile when running into a 5-mile-per-hour headwind and 25 seconds per mile when facing a 10-mile-per-hour headwind. That's an extra 5 to 11 minutes over the marathon distance; but a four-hour marathoner running the entire race into the wind loses approximately 15 to 32 minutes with the same winds.

Glover has some advice for dealing with headwinds:

When running into the wind, lean forward slightly to decrease the resistance. Stay relaxed maintaining good running form and conserving energy. Try to tuck in behind others to reduce the wind resistance. Look for a big runner and keep as close as you can to properly "draft." Chester Kyle, a professor of mechanics at California State University, reports you cut wind resistance by 31 percent if you stay 10 feet behind another runner; by 51 percent if you're within 5 feet. If you're with a pack of runners on a windy day, take turns shielding each other from the wind. Hang with a group as long as you can. The effort will be far easier than if battling headwind alone.

Now it's far from certain you'll need to embrace these tips. In fact, there is a timing and direction scenario on the low coming down from the Pacific Northwest that would give us northerly winds, particularly early on Sunday morning. If that happens, you might confidently go out a little faster than you'd plan. According to Glover, "The three-hour marathoner runs 8 seconds per mile faster with a 5-mile-per-hour tailwind and 18 seconds faster with a 10-mile-per-hour tailwind. The four-hour marathoner, however, gets pushed along even more at between 10 and 24 seconds per mile!"

Squabbling International Models

No hair pulling or scratching, but the the Euro (ECMWF) and the Yank (GFS) continue to disagree about the moisture content and movement of that system expected to head down the interior west this weekend. The mets in Sacramento and the Bay Area would really like to see the two models kiss and make up (ah, wouldn't we all), but until then are betting on the Euro to prevail. Thus the lingering chance of precipitation for Sunday, mostly in the form of high-elevation snows in the Sierra, but possibly with a little rain in the valley.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1000 AM PST THU DEC 3 2009

... SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD CANADIAN SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES COOL FURTHER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -1 TO -3 C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO VARY BETWEEN MODELS AND MODEL RUNS. OVERALL BLEND OF THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE VERY LOW WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -16 TO -18 C AND THICKNESS DOWN TO 520 TO 523 DM. THE ECMWF IS WETTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT. THINKING NOW IS THAT PERHAPS A FOOT OF HIGH RATIO SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS LIKE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SYSTEM WITH A STRONG JET AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP FROM WEDNESDAY ON WITH SIGNIFICANT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY. EK

Strictly Local

Clear and cold, with temps getting down near freezing, this evening in Eugene, Oregon. Just in case anything interesting is taking place outdoors there.

Closing In on a Cool Marathon

I'm up stupid early because CIM starts stupid early and I'm hoping to get myself in an early-to-bed, early-to-rise mode heading into Sunday. (I'm also vowing to be running at 7 a.m. this morning, five or six miles with one of the middle miles at marathon pace. This after two days off in the last three. Wonder how I'll feel.)

So that's a sign that we're getting close to Race Day. Another is that Sunday has moved from the "extended" to the "short term" in the National Weather Service's forecasting discussions. That means the NWS now attaches a percentage chance to the rainfall prediction for the day in Sacramento: "A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53." My guess is that if the model trends don't change substantially, even that small chance of precipitation will be removed before long.

Of course, the race begins at Folsom, approximately 26.2 miles from downtown Sacramento, at sunrise. (Did I mention that's early?) The overnight low there is forecast to be 35. The NWS sees winds for Sunday morning at a fairly robust 8 mph, from the north first, then turning to lighter westerlies later in the morning.

AccuWeather this morning has no mention of rain at all for Sunday, with a forecast of partly sunny and a high of 52 in Sacramento. Chilly overnight low in Folsom, however: 33. That means that the race will essentially be run in the 30s and 40s.

Wunderground retains a tiny chance of rain, at 10 percent at 4 a.m. Sunday and 20 percent at 10 a.m. (before rising to 60 percent by 10 p.m. Sunday night). Wunderground also forecasts north-northwest winds around 5 mph, which would be OK, but more north and less northwest would be preferred, since we'll be running west-southwest.

Definitely Trending Drier

The National Weather Service's Sacramento forecast for Sunday has moved from "chance of rain" to "slight chance of rain." Why? At least one model, the GFS, now shows the low that was forecast to move through the Pacific Northwest and then slide down into California heading farther east as it drops south.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
900 PM PST WED DEC 2 2009

SIGNS OF WEATHER CHANGE BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER WESTERN ALASKA MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST RIDGE...THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NOW BETWEEN 130 AND 140 WEST IS FORECAST TO BREAK APART AS IN ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN U.S RIDGE. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPILL OVER NORCAL ON FRIDAY AND THIS CLOUDINESS COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT AIRMASS COOLING FROM LOW TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOLING TO MOST AREAS. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS DUG A SHORTWAVE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE GREAT BASIN LOW ON SATURDAY AND INDICATED A THREAT OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA. 00Z KEEPS THIS FEATURE FARTHER TO THE EAST. IF THIS TREND HOLDS IN FUTURE RUNS THEN FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO REMOVE THIS THREAT. EITHER WAY...COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

Three Local-TV 7-Days

CBS


Fox


ABC

Sacto NWS Discussion: Colder, Slight Rain Chance

It hit 61 at Sacramento Executive Airport this afternoon, but that could be it for 60s for a while. The latest Area Forecast Discussion calls for highs to plunge "10 to 20 degrees" over the weekend. Precipitation remains a possibility for Sunday but chances appear small and amounts, if any, would be light. That's because, if I'm reading this correctly, the Saturday/Sunday "storm" appears to be what is often called an "inside slider." In addition to being a very tough pitch to hit, an inside slider is a weather system that moves into California from the north. As such, it doesn't pick up moisture the way the vast bulk of the state's winter storms do when they come in from the Pacific.

As for winds, both direction and force too difficult to say right now—all depends on the precise timing of that upper level low.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
300 PM PST WED DEC 2 2009

... THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THIS WILL START THE COOLING TREND. THE MODELS STILL VARY WITH THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW WITH THE ECMWF BEING FURTHER WEST AND DEEPER. EITHER WAY THIS WILL BRING SOME COLD CONTINENTAL AIR DOWN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY. THE GFS REMAINS DRY WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE SIERRA SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARD A FURTHER WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE LOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA AND SHASTA COUNTY MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. COLD AIR WILL BE COMING DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM DROPPING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 3000 FEET IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 4500 FEET SOUTH OF TAHOE. THIS COULD BRING WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAIN PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DRY SO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 6 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AT THIS TIME. AS THE SYSTEM DIGS OUT INTO THE PACIFIC IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HSO

Truth and the Forecast

My favorite story involving weather forecasting and big public events is the one about the radio weather guy who got fired for correctly predicting rain at a Rush Limbaugh dittohead gathering in the San Joaquin Valley. This is true. Walter Brasch reported the story back in 1995:

KMJ, which carries the Rush Limbaugh talk show, was sponsoring the Second Annual Dittohead Barbecue and Politically Incorrect Picnic, Saturday, April 15. Since it was already politically incorrect, it was apparently no big deal that it was also Easter and Passover weekend.

Four days before the Dittoheads were to meet, (Sean) Boyd forecast a chance of showers, based upon reports of the National Weather Service. (Program Director John) Broeske possibly didn't think that anyone, including the clouds, had a right to rain upon his plumped-up sizzling raucous barbecued hotdogs. After all, the station, which sends 5,000 screaming watts of conservative thinking into one of the state's biggest media markets, had something of an investment in making sure thousands showed up to celebrate the Biggest Mouth That Roars, even if the Chief Dittohead himself had no plans to attend. So, Broeske strongly suggested that Boyd revise the forecast. After all, you never know with California weather. It could have been a wonderful day in the neighborhood.

"Do you want me to change all the forecasts?" Boyd asked, then sarcastically suggested that the program director could just write down what he thought the weather should be, "and I'll tell it just the way you have asked." The program director might have thought about the temptation to move a few clouds but declined. Boyd stuck with his weather report. About 3 p.m. that Sunday, rain began falling upon the char-smoked Dittoheads....

Ten days later, Broeske canned Boyd, although he denied it was because of the weather guy's unwillingness to shade a forecast.

Coping with that Pre-Race Anxiety

Cartoon by Andy Singer; used by permission of the author.

Ideal Conditions?

In 2008, just before the London Marathon, the guys at Science of Sport explored the research on what weather conditions are conducive to high performance. The whole piece, which is not especially long, is worth reading, but the upshot is that 41-59F (5-15C) is the sweet spot for fast times. Generally, ambient temperature trumps sky conditions as a predictor of performance, but if temps are below ideal—say, 32-41F (0-5C)—runners seem to do better if the sun in shining than they do under cloudy skies. As Jonathan Dugas said in a comment to the post: "[E]ven though the guys are running at very high metabolic rates, when the ambient temp is 0-5 C and there is no sunshine even they tend to get cold and uncomfortable and suffer from the conditions."

Morning Roundup

National Weather Service
Saturday night in Folsom shows a slight chance of rain, rising to a chance of rain on Sunday. Morning low around 37. For Sacramento Sunday, a chance of rain, mostly cloudy, high 53.

AccuWeather
Around 37 degrees and dry in Folsom at the start. Clouding up through the morning, chance of rain increasing, heading toward a high of 51 in Sacramento.

Weather Channel
Partly cloudy overnight Saturday in Folsom, with a 20 percent chance of rain, morning low around 35. South winds at 5 mph. For Sacramento for Sunday, times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 50s. 10 percent chance of rain.

Wunderground
For Folsom Sunday morning, mostly cloudy, 20 percent chance of rain at 4 a.m. rising to 50 percent chance at 10 a.m. Temp around 36 at sunrise. Light winds shifting from west to south/southeast.

Chilly, Yes; Not so Much Rain or Wind?

OK, the Bay Area NWS has moved the pattern-change thinking ahead quite a bit tonight, at least according to this amateur's interpretation of the fresh forecast disucssion. It's not going to be very wet in the Sacramento-Folsom corridor Sunday morning, if at all, but it will be chilly. The middle of next week California will be slammed with heavy rain and strong winds.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
910 PM PST TUE DEC 1 2009

...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

... ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL INITIALLY EVOLVE FROM DRY TO WET. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY BETWEEN 140 AND 150W WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...INGEST SOME COLD CANADIAN AIR...AND FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER OR NEAR THE PAC NW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A WETTER AND MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS POISED TO BREAK UNDER THE RIDGE AND APPROACH CA FROM THE DUE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE THAT THE COLD SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW WILL SAG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE MOISTURE FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL GET THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE`LL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. FOR OUR AREA... THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES...THE AREA CLOSEST TO THE BEST MOISTURE INFLUX. BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ONWARD AS A STRONG AND WET FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC BREAKS FULLY THROUGH AND DELIVERS PERIODIC RAIN EVENTS (LIKELY HEAVY) FROM TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. PERIODS OF STRONG WIND AND HEAVY SEAS WILL OCCUR AS WELL BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO MORE ACCURATELY REFLECT THE MOST RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE.

Timing Will Be Everything

Special Weather Statement out of the National Weather Service Sacramento office:

...CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 10 TO 20 DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IN THE VALLEY AND THE 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR UPDATES TO THE CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A Crusader for a Morning

"Great Minds, Great Hearts, Great Futures." That’s the motto for Northwest Nazarene University in Nampa, Idaho. Despite my agnosticism, I will proudly represent the Crusaders and their great stuff in the hours before the California International Marathon—and perhaps for a mile or two of the actual race.

Back in 2005, when I ran CIM as a marathon neophyte, I was unschooled on the disposable pre-start clothing concept. So there I was, my drop bag dropped, standing in a short-sleeved technical shirt and shorts in the dark in literally freezing cold for a half hour or more waiting for the race to begin. The sun came up and out as the race began but the temperature rose slowly and I felt tight for miles, and running on tight quads, I submit, cost me late in the race.

Since then I’ve learned what to do in the days before an early race: head down to the Salvation Army store on NE Halsey Street in outer east Portland and buy a sweater that I can wear up to or past the starting line and fling aside whenever I determine it’s no longer needed. This fine Northwest Nazarene University hoodie cost me $2.75, which is an especially good deal, I’d say, since it will also provide cover for my bald head.

Whether there's rain or not, I can assure you it will be chilly in Folsom at 6 a.m. on Sunday—probably high 30s at best. So hit a local thrift store in the next couple of days and grab an obscurely logo'd garment. Or maybe you’ve got a sweatshirt or jacket you need to get rid of. (If you don’t think so, check with your significant other, who might provide valuable insight.) A bonus at CIM is that if the clothing isn't it bad shape, it'll end up helping keep someone warm later.

Fox40 Sacramento

For Whom the Wind Blows

Out in Twitterland, tryingtoqualify displays a Portlander's nonchalance toward the chance of showers on Race Morning, but a measure of fear is noted in her followup: "wind?" Yep, wind can make all the difference. Here’s what I wrote after the March 2006 Napa Valley Marathon, my slowest marathon, the only marathon I've run, in fact, in which I did not improve my time:

I'd guess about a third of an inch of rain fell on me during the 3 hours, 52 minutes and 30 or so seconds I was running the Napa Valley Marathon this morning. Not that bad, you're thinking. Third of an inch. Hardly Katrina. And yet, heading into a steady wind of 5-15 mph, with gusts over 20, it didn't take long to become wet through the nylon jacket and the cycling jersey that was under it. Wet through the skin, too. Wet to the bone, as they say.

Wet, windy—with the temperatures in the 40s, well, yeah, it was cold. Pretty miserable, really.

So, what about the wind? It’s really too early to say anything very meaningful about the wind potential. So much depends upon the details of how the Big Pattern Shift of Early December 2009 unfolds. But right now, the graphical forecast has Sunday-morning winds at 7 mph from the south/southeast. Later in the day, as the weather system is presumed to move into Northern California, the winds pick up to 10 mph and begin to blow from the west/southwest. The course heads toward the west/southwest. South winds under 10 mph, bothersome at points but not horrible; west/southwest winds at 10+mph? Nightmarish, especially if they carry rain.

Sacto Sam's Got a Poncho

Surely if we all follow suit there will be no rain. Because that is the way things work.

By the way, I like the notation on the packaging, "One size fits most."

Dodging a Bullet

The Bay Area office of the National Weather Service is starting to compare the upcoming rain chances to the epic October storm that brought half a foot or more of rain, along with windy conditions, to parts of Northern California. But confidence continues to grow that any such madness will ensue post-race, perhaps not even until the middle of next week.

Like the Sacto crew, the SF NWS overnighters note the Canadian and the Euro (ECMWF) snuggling each other while poor GFS stands forlorn in a corner. SF thinks it won't be long until GFS makes it a menage a trois, however: "Expect to see new runs of the GFS trend more in line with the Euro." Fine with me, as long as they continue to have the storm arriving after, say, 10 a.m. on Sunday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
445 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2009

... EXTENDED FORECAST...THE CANADIAN (GEM) AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AND WE`VE FOLLOWED THEIR WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH AN ARCTIC INTRUSION THAT IT DROPS DOWN FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION THERE WILL KEEP THAT ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND COLD AIR FARTHER EAST OVER MONTANA.

FOLLOWING THE GEM AND ECMWF WOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY BRING WARM ADVECTION RAINS ONSHORE SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO AT LEAST MENTION RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE EURO HASN`T REALLY WAVERED OVER THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS WITH TWO RELATIVELY WEAKER STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER SUPER-TYPHOON NIDA ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE GEM MODEL IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EURO IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH AT LEAST TWO ~980-985 MB LOWS PASSING WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO MONDAY THROUGH WEDS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY THING KEEPING CONFIDENCE DOWN SLIGHTLY IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THINGS DRY UNTIL WEDS. CONSENSUS IN HOUSE AND WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES IS TO DISREGARD THIS AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE NEW RUNS OF THE GFS TREND MORE IN LINE WITH THE EURO. ITS GETTING HARD NOT TO START DRAWING ANALOGIES TO THE OCTOBER EVENT WITH ANOTHER RE-CURVING FORMER TYPHOON TAKING AIM AT THE CENTRAL COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TO GIVE AN IDEA ON RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND THESE ARE VERY COARSE AND PRELIMINARY AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF GIVES 4 DAY STORM TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES IN THE HILLS WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH RAIN TOTALS FOR THE VALLEYS. OVER IN THE SIERRA THE LATEST RUNS GIVE STORM TOTAL QPF OF NEARLY 19 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIP.

Now We Hear from the Canadian

Overnight Sacto NWS discussion expands the debate about the timing and nature of the near-certain pattern change in the offing, bringing the Canadian computer model into the picture. You'll sometimes see this model referred to as GEM, for Global Environmental Multiscale. I know, whatever. What's interesting is that the Canadian is in line with the ECMWF, with the GFS beginning to look a little lonely in its drier analysis. Still, even the "wetter solution" referenced below doesn't necessarily call for storminess on Sunday morning. And Sunday morning is all we care about, right?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
230 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2009

GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT THIS MORNING WITH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE OTHER TWO MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN DROPPING DOWN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)... STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED. GFS AS MENTIONED ABOVE HAS BECOME THE OUTLIER KEEPING A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR CWA ON THE DRIER SIDE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS STILL INDICATE A WETTER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOW PRESSURE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO DRAG SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED. JBB