Run Hard, Be Safe, Have Fun

The forecasts have been steady, and they're all pretty similar. That means we can have good confidence in the conditions we'll be racing in tomorrow morning.

We start under cloudy skies, maybe a brief peek of sun here and there, maybe not, and the temperature in the low 40s. There's a breeze out of the south—that's into our faces for most of the first five miles, but it's a very light breeze and we're all nervous, fresh, excited … we don't even notice it.

As the race wears on, the trend is for more sun. None of the forecasts offer a full-blown, rockin,' 100 percent, money-back, solar bath guarantee; just less cloudiness. The temperature crawls slowly upward; under-three-hour marathoners might do their entire race in the 40s, but even those running for four or five hours won't see anything more than mid 50s.

As for the wind, well, this is always a difficult forecast to make with precision. That said, the consensus is that the wind will slowly ramp up as the morning proceeds—from around 3 mph at the start to 6-8 mph by late morning. It's a generally south wind—that is, from the south, blowing north—though there are hints here and there it might turn a little more south-southwest (blowing north-northeast). Remember, we run miles 21 to 23 directly south and 23 to 25.5 southeast, then go south again to the finish. Depending upon how you're faring, late in the game it might be enough of a wind to prompt a bit of muttering at Mother Nature's caprice. Then again, if you ran CIM last December those were steady 10+ mph winds with gusts over 20. It won't be that bad (nor as cold).

So that's it, kids. All in all, we should count ourselves quite fortunate. It's been pretty dreary in Oregon this spring—here in Portland we saw rain on 25 out of the 30 days in April. We're getting a good one.

Nothing left now except the running.

Race Forecasts (as of Saturday Morning)

National Weather Service
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. West northwest wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 65. South wind between 6 and 8 mph.

Accuweather
7am: Partly sunny, 44, Wind S @ 4 mph, 92% humidity
8am: Partly sunny, 45, Wind SSE @ 3 mph, 89% humidity
9am: Partly sunny, 47, Wind S @ 5 mph, 85% humidity
10am: Partly sunny, 49, Wind S @ 6 mph, 79% humidity
11am: Partly sunny, 52, Wind S @ 7 mph, 74% humidity

Weather.com
7am: Cloudy, 44, Wind S @ 4mph, 65% humidity
8am: Cloudy, 45, S @ 5mph, 60% humidity
9am: Cloudy, 48, S @ 6mph, 58% humidity
10am: Mostly cloudy, 51, Wind SSW @ 6mph, 61% humidity
11am: Mostly cloudy, 54, SSW @ 6mph, 61% humidity

All Good

Up here in Portland, what was looking, three or four days ago, to be a significant stretch of glorious spring with sunshine from Saturday through Wednesday has shrunk to almost nothing, nothing but the same old same old. Only Sunday remains free of rain. Didn't I mention the way that happens with our forecasts? The Amazing Disappearing Lovely Outlook. A similar phenomenon occurs in the winter, but then it generally works like this: Breathless forecasts of copious snow disintegrate into a dull, cold reality of scattered flakes in the hills and rain on the valley floor.

Anyway, Eugene's location 110 miles south is keeping the window of benign weather open a little longer and there seems no doubt it will be PRETTY DARN NICE WEATHER FOR THE RACE ON SUNDAY. Did you hear that? Pretty darn nice weather for the race on Sunday. Quoting the National Weather Service:

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 6 mph.

UPDATE: Going Hourly
Hourlies for Race Day from many of the commercial services are now available. Roundup of the 7 a.m. Sunday forecasts immediately below. Note that Weather.com and Intellicast appear to be reading from the same playbook.

Weather.com
Mostly cloudy, 43, 20% chance rain, 86% humidity, winds S @ 3 mph

Accuweather
Partly sunny, 41, 88% humidity, winds S @ 5 mph

Intellicast
Mostly cloudy, 43, 20% chance rain, 86% humidity, winds S @ 3 mph

Stupid Accuweather Less Stupid Now

The Accuweather forecasters, who had been predicting a rare Oregon hurricane—an inland one, at that!—for Sunday in Eugene, are coming to their senses. They've ditched the forecast of 17 mph winds with gusts of 35 mph. Now they're saying 11 mph winds with gusts of 20 mph. That's still a very windy day, but I have a feeling this walk back has just begun.

UPDATE: National Weather Service forecast discussion this morning is looking good:

ON SAT...BOTH GFS AND ECWMF CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN THOUGH BEST THREAT OF SHOWERS/RAIN IS OVER W WASHINGTON AND BRIT COL...FEEL WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NW OREGON MAINLY N OF A NEWPORT TO SALEM TO MT JEFFERSON LINE. THEN APPEARS WILL HAVE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUN INTO MON...WITH DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER.

New Shoes! Back Recovery! Wind?

My new Asics Hyper Speed 4s arrived today. They don't look a lot different than the 3s I wore at Berlin and Sacramento. The old shoes were beaten to a pulp, and the new ones felt pretty plush when I took them out for a 40-minute spin today—especially for what are essentially racing flats. They'll have maybe 15 miles on them for Sunday's race, which is just fine for such flexible, lightweight shoes. It's the big clunkers you've got to break in for a few weeks.

What else? Oh, that career-ending back injury I suffered yesterday shaking a carton of unsweetened whole-grain beverage (it's darn refreshing stuff, but where's the warning label?) is doing much better. I took a couple of ibuprofen soon after I was stricken, and that helped quiet the spasms, which were centered between the shoulder blades at their most southerly reach. The pills—I pretty much never take pain medication—also left me woozy, out of sorts. It sucks to be out of sorts. Sure, you can get sorts at any filling-station food mart, sorts and a microwaved breakfast burrito, 24/7, but that's cheap sorts from China and I don't go near that shit.

By bedtime the pain was a dull ache that had migrated toward my neck. Slept well. Woke up stiff. My back, geez you people are terrible. But gradually, through the course of today, I've felt better, unless I sit at the keyboard too long writing stupid Race Day Outlook updates.

Oh, yeah, the race day outlook.

I noted in this morning's quick hit that the forecasts were coalescing, and no bombs have been thrown today to blow up the process. We begin to transition out of this week's cool, rainy weather late tomorrow. There's a little talk of a weak system riding over the building ridge early Saturday, but not much is expected of it, and anyway it's gone by late in the day. Sunday is nice. Sunday is Race Day. Sunday is nice. Got it?

The roundup is below but first, about that wind that's keeping Sam McManis up at night: Accuweather is hanging in there with crazy-windy conditions for Sunday. The National Weather Service in its graphical forecasts has things slightly breezy, but in the neighborhood of 5-10 mph on Sunday morning. My buddy Dan wonders if Accuweather is plugging in the wind forecast for 850 millibars, which is, like, a mile above the ground. They've might have their head in the clouds, you could say.

National Weather Service
Overnight low: 40
Afternoon high: 63
Precip: 0
Conditions: Mostly sunny
Winds: E @ 5 mph early, then NW @ 5-10 mph

Weather.com
Overnight low: 43
Afternoon high: 64
Precip: 20 percent chance
Conditions: Partly cloudy
Wind: NNW @ 12 mph

Stupid Accuweather
Overnight low: 38
Afternoon high: 60
Precip: 0
Conditions: Mostly sunny and breezy
Wind: N @ 17 mph, gusts to 34 mph

Intellicast
Overnight low: 43
Afternoon high: 64
Precip: 20 percent chance
Conditions: Partly cloudy

Dry, Cool Morning, Probably Breezy

Quick hit for you nervous Nellies checking in early as well as any EDT and CDT denizens making the big trek out to Track Town USA in a couple of days.... Models appear to be coming into agreement on our race weather: Dry, breezy, temps in the low 40s to start and into the 50s by the end, depending, of course, upon the great unknowable: the precise moment you arrive on the hallowed all-weather surface of legendary Hayward Field and put your stamp on running history.

All Over the Map

The National Weather Service forecast for Sunday, May 2, in Eugene is for a morning low of 42, followed by “mostly sunny” skies and a high “near 68.”

KPTV's Mark Nelsen doesn’t do a text seven-day. The picture is of a sun with a few clouds in front of it. “Scattered clouds,” let’s call it. Morning low 45, afternoon high 62. That’s for Portland/Vancouver, 110 miles north of Eugene.

Accuweather cools things way down from earlier forecasts, calling for a morning low of 39 and an afternoon high of 58, with “partly sunny and breezy” conditions. Yes, they are sticking with their crazy-wind position: N @ 18 mph, gusts to 32 mph.

Weather.com starts with a low of 42, climbing to 59 under “mostly cloudy” skies. Chance of precip is 20 percent and winds are predicted to be from the northwest at 11 mph.

Intellicast sees a “chance of showers” on Race Day—a 40 percent chance, to be precise. Morning low is a relatively balmy 47. High is 62. Their winds come from the southwest at 11 mph.

Right Now

Steady rain, temperature 48 degrees out there at 7 a.m this morning in Portland. Eugene reporting 47 and rain. Let's be glad this isn't Race Day.