Tuesday, April 27, 2010

All Over the Map

The National Weather Service forecast for Sunday, May 2, in Eugene is for a morning low of 42, followed by “mostly sunny” skies and a high “near 68.”

KPTV's Mark Nelsen doesn’t do a text seven-day. The picture is of a sun with a few clouds in front of it. “Scattered clouds,” let’s call it. Morning low 45, afternoon high 62. That’s for Portland/Vancouver, 110 miles north of Eugene.

Accuweather cools things way down from earlier forecasts, calling for a morning low of 39 and an afternoon high of 58, with “partly sunny and breezy” conditions. Yes, they are sticking with their crazy-wind position: N @ 18 mph, gusts to 32 mph.

Weather.com starts with a low of 42, climbing to 59 under “mostly cloudy” skies. Chance of precip is 20 percent and winds are predicted to be from the northwest at 11 mph.

Intellicast sees a “chance of showers” on Race Day—a 40 percent chance, to be precise. Morning low is a relatively balmy 47. High is 62. Their winds come from the southwest at 11 mph.

3 comments:

  1. Race-day weather. Truly a beautiful thing. Maybe some other kook will come up with a course weather map.

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  2. Hey -- here's something you can have some fun with: It's a tabular weather outlook produced from the GFS model for Eugene: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=keug

    For what it's worth: Right now it's calling for dry, cool conditions Sunday -- high of 58. Wind: Mostly light from the north-northwest. Interesting to note that 850-millibar winds -- well above the surface -- are similar to those cited by Accuweather. I wonder if they've simply misread the model output for the day.

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  3. Accuweather Tabular GFS Output Misread-Scandal Sends Eugene Marathoners into Pre-Race Wind Tizzy

    This might be the first scandal we've busted wide open.

    Thanks for the link, I had noodled around for that GFS -- it's what the non-NWS forecasters lean on heavily!

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