Timing Will Be Everything

Special Weather Statement out of the National Weather Service Sacramento office:

...CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 10 TO 20 DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IN THE VALLEY AND THE 30S AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED AS WELL. THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR UPDATES TO THE CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

A Crusader for a Morning

"Great Minds, Great Hearts, Great Futures." That’s the motto for Northwest Nazarene University in Nampa, Idaho. Despite my agnosticism, I will proudly represent the Crusaders and their great stuff in the hours before the California International Marathon—and perhaps for a mile or two of the actual race.

Back in 2005, when I ran CIM as a marathon neophyte, I was unschooled on the disposable pre-start clothing concept. So there I was, my drop bag dropped, standing in a short-sleeved technical shirt and shorts in the dark in literally freezing cold for a half hour or more waiting for the race to begin. The sun came up and out as the race began but the temperature rose slowly and I felt tight for miles, and running on tight quads, I submit, cost me late in the race.

Since then I’ve learned what to do in the days before an early race: head down to the Salvation Army store on NE Halsey Street in outer east Portland and buy a sweater that I can wear up to or past the starting line and fling aside whenever I determine it’s no longer needed. This fine Northwest Nazarene University hoodie cost me $2.75, which is an especially good deal, I’d say, since it will also provide cover for my bald head.

Whether there's rain or not, I can assure you it will be chilly in Folsom at 6 a.m. on Sunday—probably high 30s at best. So hit a local thrift store in the next couple of days and grab an obscurely logo'd garment. Or maybe you’ve got a sweatshirt or jacket you need to get rid of. (If you don’t think so, check with your significant other, who might provide valuable insight.) A bonus at CIM is that if the clothing isn't it bad shape, it'll end up helping keep someone warm later.

Fox40 Sacramento

For Whom the Wind Blows

Out in Twitterland, tryingtoqualify displays a Portlander's nonchalance toward the chance of showers on Race Morning, but a measure of fear is noted in her followup: "wind?" Yep, wind can make all the difference. Here’s what I wrote after the March 2006 Napa Valley Marathon, my slowest marathon, the only marathon I've run, in fact, in which I did not improve my time:

I'd guess about a third of an inch of rain fell on me during the 3 hours, 52 minutes and 30 or so seconds I was running the Napa Valley Marathon this morning. Not that bad, you're thinking. Third of an inch. Hardly Katrina. And yet, heading into a steady wind of 5-15 mph, with gusts over 20, it didn't take long to become wet through the nylon jacket and the cycling jersey that was under it. Wet through the skin, too. Wet to the bone, as they say.

Wet, windy—with the temperatures in the 40s, well, yeah, it was cold. Pretty miserable, really.

So, what about the wind? It’s really too early to say anything very meaningful about the wind potential. So much depends upon the details of how the Big Pattern Shift of Early December 2009 unfolds. But right now, the graphical forecast has Sunday-morning winds at 7 mph from the south/southeast. Later in the day, as the weather system is presumed to move into Northern California, the winds pick up to 10 mph and begin to blow from the west/southwest. The course heads toward the west/southwest. South winds under 10 mph, bothersome at points but not horrible; west/southwest winds at 10+mph? Nightmarish, especially if they carry rain.

Sacto Sam's Got a Poncho

Surely if we all follow suit there will be no rain. Because that is the way things work.

By the way, I like the notation on the packaging, "One size fits most."

Dodging a Bullet

The Bay Area office of the National Weather Service is starting to compare the upcoming rain chances to the epic October storm that brought half a foot or more of rain, along with windy conditions, to parts of Northern California. But confidence continues to grow that any such madness will ensue post-race, perhaps not even until the middle of next week.

Like the Sacto crew, the SF NWS overnighters note the Canadian and the Euro (ECMWF) snuggling each other while poor GFS stands forlorn in a corner. SF thinks it won't be long until GFS makes it a menage a trois, however: "Expect to see new runs of the GFS trend more in line with the Euro." Fine with me, as long as they continue to have the storm arriving after, say, 10 a.m. on Sunday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
445 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2009

... EXTENDED FORECAST...THE CANADIAN (GEM) AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AND WE`VE FOLLOWED THEIR WETTER SOLUTIONS. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH AN ARCTIC INTRUSION THAT IT DROPS DOWN FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION THERE WILL KEEP THAT ASSOCIATED TROUGH AND COLD AIR FARTHER EAST OVER MONTANA.

FOLLOWING THE GEM AND ECMWF WOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY BRING WARM ADVECTION RAINS ONSHORE SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO AT LEAST MENTION RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE EURO HASN`T REALLY WAVERED OVER THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS WITH TWO RELATIVELY WEAKER STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER SUPER-TYPHOON NIDA ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE GEM MODEL IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE EURO IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH AT LEAST TWO ~980-985 MB LOWS PASSING WEST OF CAPE MENDOCINO MONDAY THROUGH WEDS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY THING KEEPING CONFIDENCE DOWN SLIGHTLY IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THINGS DRY UNTIL WEDS. CONSENSUS IN HOUSE AND WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES IS TO DISREGARD THIS AND WOULD EXPECT TO SEE NEW RUNS OF THE GFS TREND MORE IN LINE WITH THE EURO. ITS GETTING HARD NOT TO START DRAWING ANALOGIES TO THE OCTOBER EVENT WITH ANOTHER RE-CURVING FORMER TYPHOON TAKING AIM AT THE CENTRAL COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. TO GIVE AN IDEA ON RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND THESE ARE VERY COARSE AND PRELIMINARY AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF GIVES 4 DAY STORM TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES IN THE HILLS WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH RAIN TOTALS FOR THE VALLEYS. OVER IN THE SIERRA THE LATEST RUNS GIVE STORM TOTAL QPF OF NEARLY 19 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIP.

Now We Hear from the Canadian

Overnight Sacto NWS discussion expands the debate about the timing and nature of the near-certain pattern change in the offing, bringing the Canadian computer model into the picture. You'll sometimes see this model referred to as GEM, for Global Environmental Multiscale. I know, whatever. What's interesting is that the Canadian is in line with the ECMWF, with the GFS beginning to look a little lonely in its drier analysis. Still, even the "wetter solution" referenced below doesn't necessarily call for storminess on Sunday morning. And Sunday morning is all we care about, right?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
230 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2009

GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT THIS MORNING WITH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE OTHER TWO MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN DROPPING DOWN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)... STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED. GFS AS MENTIONED ABOVE HAS BECOME THE OUTLIER KEEPING A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR CWA ON THE DRIER SIDE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS STILL INDICATE A WETTER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOW PRESSURE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO DRAG SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED. JBB