Overnight Sacto NWS discussion expands the debate about the timing and nature of the near-certain pattern change in the offing, bringing the Canadian computer model into the picture. You'll sometimes see this model referred to as GEM, for Global Environmental Multiscale. I know, whatever. What's interesting is that the Canadian is in line with the ECMWF, with the GFS beginning to look a little lonely in its drier analysis. Still, even the "wetter solution" referenced below doesn't necessarily call for storminess on Sunday morning. And Sunday morning is all we care about, right?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
230 AM PST TUE DEC 1 2009
GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT THIS MORNING WITH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE GFS KEEPS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE OTHER TWO MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN DROPPING DOWN OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY)... STILL DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN DETAILS FOR THE EXTENDED. GFS AS MENTIONED ABOVE HAS BECOME THE OUTLIER KEEPING A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR CWA ON THE DRIER SIDE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS STILL INDICATE A WETTER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. LOW PRESSURE UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO DRAG SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTION IN THE EXTENDED. JBB
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
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Well, timing is everything. Given how dry the air mass has been, I'd bet that it will take a while for saturation to occur and real rain to start anywhere in Northern California. The Monterey forecast discussion -- which I'm sure you've read -- is really focusing on Sunday night for the onset of rain along the coast. (Yes, I know: that's a long way out.)
ReplyDeleteThis is fantastic - I had no idea there were all these models out there. I get to learn something new while agonizing over the race weather. Loving the OCD!
ReplyDeleteI like your way of thinking, Dan.
ReplyDeleteAnd Dusty, yeah, the weather forecasters on TV typically like to leave you with the impression that they're figuring it all out on their own. But it's really all about the computer models. Of course, the really good forecasters synthesize experience and local knowledge with the computer output to give you a uniquely insightful forecast. Good luck on Sunday!