Closing In on a Cool Marathon

I'm up stupid early because CIM starts stupid early and I'm hoping to get myself in an early-to-bed, early-to-rise mode heading into Sunday. (I'm also vowing to be running at 7 a.m. this morning, five or six miles with one of the middle miles at marathon pace. This after two days off in the last three. Wonder how I'll feel.)

So that's a sign that we're getting close to Race Day. Another is that Sunday has moved from the "extended" to the "short term" in the National Weather Service's forecasting discussions. That means the NWS now attaches a percentage chance to the rainfall prediction for the day in Sacramento: "A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53." My guess is that if the model trends don't change substantially, even that small chance of precipitation will be removed before long.

Of course, the race begins at Folsom, approximately 26.2 miles from downtown Sacramento, at sunrise. (Did I mention that's early?) The overnight low there is forecast to be 35. The NWS sees winds for Sunday morning at a fairly robust 8 mph, from the north first, then turning to lighter westerlies later in the morning.

AccuWeather this morning has no mention of rain at all for Sunday, with a forecast of partly sunny and a high of 52 in Sacramento. Chilly overnight low in Folsom, however: 33. That means that the race will essentially be run in the 30s and 40s.

Wunderground retains a tiny chance of rain, at 10 percent at 4 a.m. Sunday and 20 percent at 10 a.m. (before rising to 60 percent by 10 p.m. Sunday night). Wunderground also forecasts north-northwest winds around 5 mph, which would be OK, but more north and less northwest would be preferred, since we'll be running west-southwest.