Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Right Now
Steady rain, temperature 48 degrees out there at 7 a.m this morning in Portland. Eugene reporting 47 and rain. Let's be glad this isn't Race Day.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Late-Night Model-Shift Trend Alert
KPTV's Mark Nelsen blogged tonight about the coming weekend. Speaking about two frequently cited computer models that have been offering vastly different solutions for the weeend, he noted that the one that had been calling for a sunny, warm weekend in Western Oregon is now shifting to a less-happy outcome. Dang.
Still a huge difference in the GFS and ECMWF for Saturday and beyond, although things seem to be coming a bit closer together this evening. The GFS built a big ridge in the east Pacific and then flopped it over us starting on Sunday. The ECMWF through 12z this morning showed a vigorous and cold trough dropping in, smashing right through the ridge Sunday and beyond…totally different solutions. I see the GFS is definitely showing some retrograde action the last few runs, so apparently today was a good day to back off that crazy forecast of 70+ starting Sunday.
How's Your Taper Going?
We made it to 65 yesterday, three degrees of the Fahrenheit variety under the forecasts put out in the morning, about 10 degrees off earlier forecasts. I haven't compiled any data—I'm not that kooky—but I see this happen often in Oregon in the spring: Glorious forecasts sort of fall apart as the target approaches. Not that yesterday turned out to be a cruddy day. It was nice, and I got in my 10 miles—four easy, two at marathon pace (6:52/mile; we'll see about that) and four easy. At the risk of planting the kiss of death on my pouty, ruby-red hopes, I will say I felt great, especially given that just two days earlier I'd knocked off some killer Yasso 800s.
The Eugene outlook? Yeah, in a second. But first—as a bit of a disclaimer, I suppose, since it might impact your perception of my credibility as a purveyor of weather geekery—I must reveal a startling truth: I don't watch any of the local TV weather forecasters. It's pretty simple, actually. I don't watch local TV news, period. The thing is—and I say this not to boast—I have an IQ above 75. Ipso facto, local news is unbearably stupid to me. (Eesh, that's harsh. In fact, I'm sure there are many hard-working, well-intentioned people toiling in the news departments around town. And I'm sure that in the rare instances when they are given the opportunity, they do excellent work. And no doubt they respond forcefully to breaking, emergency situations. But all the fluff, the crap, the commercials ... sorry, not for me.)
I do, however, ply the Internets to follow the prognostications of Mark Nelsen, a lifelong local who uses his knowledge and experience to take the data spewed out by the various computer models, stuff every forecaster has access to, and present his followers a more nuanced and almost always more accurate sense of what weather will unfold. Right now, Mark's seven-day forecast has "warmer & dry" for the weekend, with a high of 70 on Sunday. That's for the Portland/Vancouver area, where most of Mark's audience lives. It's a nice sign that the trend is in our favor, but what about Eugene itself? Well, I checked out the site for the CBS affiliate down there, and as of this afternoon (Monday afternoon, I must emphasize) their seven-day runs from last Saturday through this Friday. Nice. Then I clicked on what was advertised as a video presentation of the forecast. This nearly three-plus minute snippet in fact featured two almost endearingly bumbling studio yakkers standing in front of the camera presenting celebrity birthdays. "Local celebrities" included.
Onward.
Accuweather sees partly sunny skies (morning low 42, afternoon high 63) and breezy conditions on Race Day. Really breezy—north winds of 16 mph and gusts of 31. I've not run the course, but a look at the map suggests around eight miles of serious headwinds if this comes to pass. The course heads almost directly north from mile 5 to mile 8 and again for most of mile 9. At mile 17 we go northwest, gradually turning directly north for miles 19 to 21. The rest of the way to the finish would be, under the Accuweather scenario, substantially aided by the winds. As I said yesterday, wind predications are very dicey, but this is such an emphatic wind forecast it certainly bears watching.
My unfavorite weather site, Weather.com, meanwhile, serves up this hash for Eugene, May 2: Partly cloudy, 20 percent chance of precip, high 65, low 40, winds from the north at 10.
The Eugene outlook? Yeah, in a second. But first—as a bit of a disclaimer, I suppose, since it might impact your perception of my credibility as a purveyor of weather geekery—I must reveal a startling truth: I don't watch any of the local TV weather forecasters. It's pretty simple, actually. I don't watch local TV news, period. The thing is—and I say this not to boast—I have an IQ above 75. Ipso facto, local news is unbearably stupid to me. (Eesh, that's harsh. In fact, I'm sure there are many hard-working, well-intentioned people toiling in the news departments around town. And I'm sure that in the rare instances when they are given the opportunity, they do excellent work. And no doubt they respond forcefully to breaking, emergency situations. But all the fluff, the crap, the commercials ... sorry, not for me.)
I do, however, ply the Internets to follow the prognostications of Mark Nelsen, a lifelong local who uses his knowledge and experience to take the data spewed out by the various computer models, stuff every forecaster has access to, and present his followers a more nuanced and almost always more accurate sense of what weather will unfold. Right now, Mark's seven-day forecast has "warmer & dry" for the weekend, with a high of 70 on Sunday. That's for the Portland/Vancouver area, where most of Mark's audience lives. It's a nice sign that the trend is in our favor, but what about Eugene itself? Well, I checked out the site for the CBS affiliate down there, and as of this afternoon (Monday afternoon, I must emphasize) their seven-day runs from last Saturday through this Friday. Nice. Then I clicked on what was advertised as a video presentation of the forecast. This nearly three-plus minute snippet in fact featured two almost endearingly bumbling studio yakkers standing in front of the camera presenting celebrity birthdays. "Local celebrities" included.
Onward.
Accuweather sees partly sunny skies (morning low 42, afternoon high 63) and breezy conditions on Race Day. Really breezy—north winds of 16 mph and gusts of 31. I've not run the course, but a look at the map suggests around eight miles of serious headwinds if this comes to pass. The course heads almost directly north from mile 5 to mile 8 and again for most of mile 9. At mile 17 we go northwest, gradually turning directly north for miles 19 to 21. The rest of the way to the finish would be, under the Accuweather scenario, substantially aided by the winds. As I said yesterday, wind predications are very dicey, but this is such an emphatic wind forecast it certainly bears watching.
My unfavorite weather site, Weather.com, meanwhile, serves up this hash for Eugene, May 2: Partly cloudy, 20 percent chance of precip, high 65, low 40, winds from the north at 10.
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Just a Week to Go, Kids
Pretty nice in Stumptown today, as filtered sunshine warms things up. Not as nice as they had been forecasting, mind you. Forgotten are the hosanna-eliciting predictions of mid-70s; maybe 68? We'll take it. I imagine it's not very different at the other end of the Willamette Valley—110 miles down the road—in Eugene.
I'm feeling good that my last pre-Eugene run of any length, an easy 10-miler, is scheduled for this afternoon. That's because tomorrow things go to hell for a while, with the forecast calling for showers and 50s for much of the week. When exactly this "troughiness," as the weather geeks call it, will end—and what it will leave in its wake—appears to be the developing theme for the 2010 Eugene Marathon weather watch. And the news continues to look pretty good on that front ("front" ... hee-hee). The fellas in the National Weather Service office here, whose forecast area includes Eugene, say in their discussion this morning:
As for Accuweather, their "sunshine with patchy clouds" for Eugene on Sunday, May 2, has morphed into "considerable cloudiness." Forecast high and low are unchanged, at 66 and 37, respectively. No rain is expected, but north winds of 8 mph gusting to 23 mph are noted. (Don't worry too much about that yet; because winds vary so greatly from hour to hour, a useful forecast for marathon morning won't be had until we're within 48 hours of the race—perhaps not even until the night before.)
Finally, over at Weather.com, the 10-day—which toward the outer end seems to be based largely on climatology—envisions "partly cloudy" conditions with a high of 65 and a low of 45. Chance of rain is 20 percent, but this time of year they almost never take some small chance of rain out of the extended forecast.
I'm feeling good that my last pre-Eugene run of any length, an easy 10-miler, is scheduled for this afternoon. That's because tomorrow things go to hell for a while, with the forecast calling for showers and 50s for much of the week. When exactly this "troughiness," as the weather geeks call it, will end—and what it will leave in its wake—appears to be the developing theme for the 2010 Eugene Marathon weather watch. And the news continues to look pretty good on that front ("front" ... hee-hee). The fellas in the National Weather Service office here, whose forecast area includes Eugene, say in their discussion this morning:
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS AND SWIFT MOVING SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED AREAS. BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT A RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BEGIN INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DETAILS VARY. HAVE KEPT A DRYING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.A ridge is what we want. We spell ridge "D-R-Y."
As for Accuweather, their "sunshine with patchy clouds" for Eugene on Sunday, May 2, has morphed into "considerable cloudiness." Forecast high and low are unchanged, at 66 and 37, respectively. No rain is expected, but north winds of 8 mph gusting to 23 mph are noted. (Don't worry too much about that yet; because winds vary so greatly from hour to hour, a useful forecast for marathon morning won't be had until we're within 48 hours of the race—perhaps not even until the night before.)
Finally, over at Weather.com, the 10-day—which toward the outer end seems to be based largely on climatology—envisions "partly cloudy" conditions with a high of 65 and a low of 45. Chance of rain is 20 percent, but this time of year they almost never take some small chance of rain out of the extended forecast.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Trend Watch
Not to belabor the point that Oregon forecasts are shifty buggers, but yesterday morning the Monday forecast for the Willamette Valley was sunny with temps in the mid-70s. Now they're saying rain likely with temps in the 50s, maybe hitting 60. Talk about your forecast whiplash.
That said, eight days out we are seeing an encouraging turn in the outlook for May 2. The chilly, damp weather expected to prevail in Western Oregon next week might just be up and out of here by race weekend. Accuweather has "mainly cloudy and warmer" with a high/low of 63/34 for Saturday, then "sunshine with patchy clouds" and 66/37 for Sunday.
The National Weather Service forecast discussion out of Portland reflects this happy hope, noting differing computer-model projections but adding: SOME SIMILARITIES REMAIN IN THAT THE MAIN TROUGH EITHER DIGS S OR SHIFTS E...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LOWERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THE END OF THE WEEK.
(By the way, the all-caps treatment is theirs. Weather Service guys like to shout when they discuss, and who am I to tell them to quiet down?)
That said, eight days out we are seeing an encouraging turn in the outlook for May 2. The chilly, damp weather expected to prevail in Western Oregon next week might just be up and out of here by race weekend. Accuweather has "mainly cloudy and warmer" with a high/low of 63/34 for Saturday, then "sunshine with patchy clouds" and 66/37 for Sunday.
The National Weather Service forecast discussion out of Portland reflects this happy hope, noting differing computer-model projections but adding: SOME SIMILARITIES REMAIN IN THAT THE MAIN TROUGH EITHER DIGS S OR SHIFTS E...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LOWERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THE END OF THE WEEK.
(By the way, the all-caps treatment is theirs. Weather Service guys like to shout when they discuss, and who am I to tell them to quiet down?)
Friday, April 23, 2010
First Forecast
A 10-day forecast is as meaningful as your kid's promise that he'll clean his room "later." Very little confidence is in order. However, in as much as anxiety-cum-irrationality undergirds this itinerant blog, shouldn't the 10-day forecast be right up our alley? Our cup of tea? Our thang? Yep, I say we peer into the narrow, dark tunnel that is the long-term forecast and attach real meaning to it. Accuweather is our co-conspirator in this crime against sober analysis.
Accuweather, Sunday, May 2, Eugene, OR: "Mostly cloudy with a passing shower."
Now if I paid for Accuweather's premium service I could tell you exactly what time that crazy-ass shower would pass through the southern end of the Willamette Valley, whether it would be at 5 a.m. as you nibble at that bagel and sip that coffee and hope the digestive functions don't go all mal on you, or whether it will be at 2 p.m. as you drive home, feeling really good (that you didn't tell anyone your race goal) or whether it's going to rain on you during the freaking race.
Sorry, don't have that information.
What we do know—and this is for real—is that after a little rain passes through Oregon tonight and tomorrow morning we're going to enjoy two great days of spring, with temps into the 70s (and trust me, no people anywhere enjoy great spring weather more than Oregonians). Then on Tuesday things turn sour and get cool and off-and-on showery for a while. Temperatures mostly in the 50s, maybe some low 60s. No big gully-washing storms, just clouds and broken sun and a little rain and more clouds ... days with 0.03 or maybe 0.11 inches of rain ... a very typical Oregon springtime pattern. Right now the forecasters see this pattern carrying into our race weekend, but that really doesn't tell us what Sunday, May 2, will bring to Eugene, and, anyway, it's scarcely more than a guess. Sigh.
The good news is, each day we learn a little more and the confidence level goes up. Eventually that room will be cleaned.
Accuweather, Sunday, May 2, Eugene, OR: "Mostly cloudy with a passing shower."
Now if I paid for Accuweather's premium service I could tell you exactly what time that crazy-ass shower would pass through the southern end of the Willamette Valley, whether it would be at 5 a.m. as you nibble at that bagel and sip that coffee and hope the digestive functions don't go all mal on you, or whether it will be at 2 p.m. as you drive home, feeling really good (that you didn't tell anyone your race goal) or whether it's going to rain on you during the freaking race.
Sorry, don't have that information.
What we do know—and this is for real—is that after a little rain passes through Oregon tonight and tomorrow morning we're going to enjoy two great days of spring, with temps into the 70s (and trust me, no people anywhere enjoy great spring weather more than Oregonians). Then on Tuesday things turn sour and get cool and off-and-on showery for a while. Temperatures mostly in the 50s, maybe some low 60s. No big gully-washing storms, just clouds and broken sun and a little rain and more clouds ... days with 0.03 or maybe 0.11 inches of rain ... a very typical Oregon springtime pattern. Right now the forecasters see this pattern carrying into our race weekend, but that really doesn't tell us what Sunday, May 2, will bring to Eugene, and, anyway, it's scarcely more than a guess. Sigh.
The good news is, each day we learn a little more and the confidence level goes up. Eventually that room will be cleaned.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
T-Minus 10 Days
We're back!
Man, how the months have flown by. We were on the fall/winter cusp as we pondered the possibilities for CIM race morning. What an interesting day that turned out to be—hardly frightful, but definitely not without challenges. The below-freezing chill at the start wasn't unusual, but the molasses-like climb of the mercury—it was barely nudging 40F when I finished—kept us on our toes. Or kept our toes numb. Worse was the wind, gusting well over 15 mph on those long southbound stretches. Then again, the rain held off until later in the day, so all in all not that bad.
Onto Eugene.
Let's start with a little climatology....
May 2 Historical Averages for Eugene
High: 64
Low: 41
Rainfall: 0.10 inches
So it's generally mild, maybe a little wet. But let's dig deeper. This will be the fourth Eugene Marathon. What have conditions been for the previous three?
Race Day in Eugene
2009 (May 3)
Temperature
7 a.m.: 48
10 a.m.: 52
Sky
7 a.m.: Light rain
10 a.m.: Overcast
Wind
7 a.m.: Calm
10 a.m.: 4 mph WSW
Rainfall
7 a.m. - noon: 0.04 inches
2008 (May 4)
Temperature
7 a.m.: 40
10 a.m.: 49
Sky
7 a.m.: Clear
10 a.m.: Overcast
Wind
7 a.m.: 6 mph NNE
10 a.m.: 12 mph NNE
Rainfall
7 a.m. - noon: 0
2007 (April 29)
Temperature
7 a.m.: 44
10 a.m.: 53
Sky
7 a.m.: Clear
10 a.m.: Scattered clouds
Wind
7 a.m.: Calm
10 a.m.: 6 mph N
Rainfall
7 a.m. - noon: 0
Man, how the months have flown by. We were on the fall/winter cusp as we pondered the possibilities for CIM race morning. What an interesting day that turned out to be—hardly frightful, but definitely not without challenges. The below-freezing chill at the start wasn't unusual, but the molasses-like climb of the mercury—it was barely nudging 40F when I finished—kept us on our toes. Or kept our toes numb. Worse was the wind, gusting well over 15 mph on those long southbound stretches. Then again, the rain held off until later in the day, so all in all not that bad.
Onto Eugene.
Let's start with a little climatology....
May 2 Historical Averages for Eugene
High: 64
Low: 41
Rainfall: 0.10 inches
So it's generally mild, maybe a little wet. But let's dig deeper. This will be the fourth Eugene Marathon. What have conditions been for the previous three?
Race Day in Eugene
2009 (May 3)
Temperature
7 a.m.: 48
10 a.m.: 52
Sky
7 a.m.: Light rain
10 a.m.: Overcast
Wind
7 a.m.: Calm
10 a.m.: 4 mph WSW
Rainfall
7 a.m. - noon: 0.04 inches
2008 (May 4)
Temperature
7 a.m.: 40
10 a.m.: 49
Sky
7 a.m.: Clear
10 a.m.: Overcast
Wind
7 a.m.: 6 mph NNE
10 a.m.: 12 mph NNE
Rainfall
7 a.m. - noon: 0
2007 (April 29)
Temperature
7 a.m.: 44
10 a.m.: 53
Sky
7 a.m.: Clear
10 a.m.: Scattered clouds
Wind
7 a.m.: Calm
10 a.m.: 6 mph N
Rainfall
7 a.m. - noon: 0
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