A 10-day forecast is as meaningful as your kid's promise that he'll clean his room "later." Very little confidence is in order. However, in as much as anxiety-cum-irrationality undergirds this itinerant blog, shouldn't the 10-day forecast be right up our alley? Our cup of tea? Our thang? Yep, I say we peer into the narrow, dark tunnel that is the long-term forecast and attach real meaning to it. Accuweather is our co-conspirator in this crime against sober analysis.
Accuweather, Sunday, May 2, Eugene, OR: "Mostly cloudy with a passing shower."
Now if I paid for Accuweather's premium service I could tell you exactly what time that crazy-ass shower would pass through the southern end of the Willamette Valley, whether it would be at 5 a.m. as you nibble at that bagel and sip that coffee and hope the digestive functions don't go all mal on you, or whether it will be at 2 p.m. as you drive home, feeling really good (that you didn't tell anyone your race goal) or whether it's going to rain on you during the freaking race.
Sorry, don't have that information.
What we do know—and this is for real—is that after a little rain passes through Oregon tonight and tomorrow morning we're going to enjoy two great days of spring, with temps into the 70s (and trust me, no people anywhere enjoy great spring weather more than Oregonians). Then on Tuesday things turn sour and get cool and off-and-on showery for a while. Temperatures mostly in the 50s, maybe some low 60s. No big gully-washing storms, just clouds and broken sun and a little rain and more clouds ... days with 0.03 or maybe 0.11 inches of rain ... a very typical Oregon springtime pattern. Right now the forecasters see this pattern carrying into our race weekend, but that really doesn't tell us what Sunday, May 2, will bring to Eugene, and, anyway, it's scarcely more than a guess. Sigh.
The good news is, each day we learn a little more and the confidence level goes up. Eventually that room will be cleaned.
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