Late-Night Model-Shift Trend Alert

KPTV's Mark Nelsen blogged tonight about the coming weekend. Speaking about two frequently cited computer models that have been offering vastly different solutions for the weeend, he noted that the one that had been calling for a sunny, warm weekend in Western Oregon is now shifting to a less-happy outcome. Dang.

Still a huge difference in the GFS and ECMWF for Saturday and beyond, although things seem to be coming a bit closer together this evening. The GFS built a big ridge in the east Pacific and then flopped it over us starting on Sunday. The ECMWF through 12z this morning showed a vigorous and cold trough dropping in, smashing right through the ridge Sunday and beyond…totally different solutions. I see the GFS is definitely showing some retrograde action the last few runs, so apparently today was a good day to back off that crazy forecast of 70+ starting Sunday.