We made it to 65 yesterday, three degrees of the Fahrenheit variety under the forecasts put out in the morning, about 10 degrees off earlier forecasts. I haven't compiled any data—I'm not
that kooky—but I see this happen often in Oregon in the spring: Glorious forecasts sort of fall apart as the target approaches. Not that yesterday turned out to be a cruddy day. It was nice, and I got in my 10 miles—four easy, two at marathon pace (6:52/mile; we'll see about that) and four easy. At the risk of planting the kiss of death on my pouty, ruby-red hopes, I will say I felt great, especially given that just two days earlier I'd knocked off some killer Yasso 800s.
The Eugene outlook? Yeah, in a second. But first—as a bit of a disclaimer, I suppose, since it might impact your perception of my credibility as a purveyor of weather geekery—I must reveal a startling truth: I don't watch any of the local TV weather forecasters. It's pretty simple, actually.
I don't watch local TV news, period. The thing is—and I say this not to boast—I have an IQ above 75. Ipso facto, local news is unbearably stupid to me. (Eesh, that's harsh. In fact, I'm sure there are many hard-working, well-intentioned people toiling in the news departments around town. And I'm sure that in the rare instances when they are given the opportunity, they do excellent work. And no doubt they respond forcefully to breaking, emergency situations. But all the fluff, the crap, the commercials ... sorry, not for me.)
I do, however, ply the Internets to follow the prognostications of
Mark Nelsen, a lifelong local who uses his knowledge and experience to take the data spewed out by the various computer models, stuff every forecaster has access to, and present his followers a more nuanced and almost always more accurate sense of what weather will unfold. Right now, Mark's seven-day forecast has "warmer & dry" for the weekend, with a high of 70 on Sunday. That's for the Portland/Vancouver area, where most of Mark's audience lives. It's a nice sign that the trend is in our favor, but what about Eugene itself? Well, I checked out the site for the CBS affiliate down there, and as of this afternoon (Monday afternoon, I must emphasize) their seven-day runs from last Saturday through this Friday. Nice. Then I clicked on what was advertised as a video presentation of the forecast. This nearly
three-plus minute snippet in fact featured two
almost endearingly bumbling studio yakkers standing in front of the camera presenting celebrity birthdays. "Local celebrities" included.
Onward.
Accuweather sees partly sunny skies (morning low 42, afternoon high 63) and breezy conditions on Race Day. Really breezy—north winds of 16 mph and gusts of 31. I've not run the course, but a look at the map suggests around eight miles of serious headwinds if this comes to pass. The course heads almost directly north from mile 5 to mile 8 and again for most of mile 9. At mile 17 we go northwest, gradually turning directly north for miles 19 to 21. The rest of the way to the finish would be, under the Accuweather scenario, substantially aided by the winds. As I said yesterday, wind predications are very dicey, but this is such an emphatic wind forecast it certainly bears watching.
My unfavorite weather site, Weather.com, meanwhile, serves up this hash for Eugene, May 2: Partly cloudy, 20 percent chance of precip, high 65, low 40, winds from the north at 10.
